On November 3, the US will not choose a president, but it will determine how much power Donald Trump can hold during his remaining two years. With a low of 32% popularity and the Democrats 11 points ahead among registered voters, The election has been transformed into a referendum on the concentration of power and the ability of the political system to apply institutional checks.
A worn-out presidency and unfulfilled promises The midterm elections come at a delicate moment for a term that was promised restore economic prosperity, end the wars and restore American greatness. Two years later, the reality is “much less triumphant”: presidential popularity is at a low point, The war against Iran has shifted its costs to citizens’ pockets and the conflict in Ukraine remains unresolved.
The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll puts Trump’s approval rating at just 32%, far from the 47% with which he started his second term. Among registered voters, the Democrats outnumber the Republicans by eleven points, and national averages confirm a sustained Democratic lead of eight or nine points.
The economy and war against Iran, electoral burdens What explains the electoral deterioration of Trumpism? To a large extent, the failure of their own promises. Trump returned to power, claiming that he would lower prices, protect US jobs, and end international conflict. Reality has called into question the three pillars of that discourse.
Tariff policy has increased economic uncertainty, and the consequences of war against Iran have exacerbated inflationary pressures, not least by rising energy prices. According to Reuters/Ipsos, 73% of Americans believe that the cost of living is moving in the wrong direction.
The war against Iran is probably the most obvious contradiction of the second term. The leader who built some of his political appeal on rejecting endless military interventions has ended up implicating the US in a conflict whose economic and political costs continue to accrue. The promise of an international policy focused solely on US interests clashes with a reality in which citizens themselves bear part of the consequences.
The battle for Congress: Chamber and Senate in dispute. The main battle is fought in the House of Representatives, where 435 seats are renewed. Projections place the Democrats as favorites to regain control. If that happens, Trump would have to face a House capable of blocking some of his legislative agenda, investigating his administration’s actions, and scrutinizing the executive’s decisions.
The Senate, traditionally more difficult for Democrats to win over, has also become a scene of dispute. The Republicans start with a majority of 53 to 47, but this time they must not only defend seats in competitive states like Maine, but face unexpected difficulties in traditionally conservative territories like Texas, Alaska, Kansas, Iowa, or South Carolina.
In the latter, polls even point to a draw, despite Trump winning the state by sixteen points in 2024. The significance of this development lies not only in the possibility of a Democratic majority in the Senate, rather that the presidential wear is penetrating territories that seemed immune to rejection of Trump. Thus, the Republican Party is forced to devote resources to defend positions that it considered consolidated, while the Democrats find electoral opportunities that only a few months ago seemed unthinkable. Ukraine and the erosion of international credibility.
The same is true of Ukraine, though its electoral effects are less immediate. Trump claimed that he could end the war quickly by negotiating directly with Putin. However, the conflict continues and US pressure on Kyiv has failed to produce a peace agreement. At the same time, relations with European allies have deteriorated and Washington’s international credibility has eroded. The president who promised to restore leadership and reshape US hegemony is facing growing difficulties in turning pressure into political outcomes.
The Democratic challenge: rather than opposition The elections also raise a fundamental question for the Democratic Party. His likely victory seems to rest more on mobilization against Trump than on the consolidation of an alternative political project. Rejecting the president may be enough to win back the House of Representatives, although it will hardly solve the representation problems that have led to the rise of Trumpism.
Economic insecurity, territorial inequalities, the loss of expectations from broad social sectors and distrust towards political elites remain. Democrats have the opportunity to rein in the presidential agenda, but also the challenge of showing that they represent more than opposition to the current White House tenant. A signal for global Trumpism. There is also a dimension beyond Washington. These elections will serve to measure the electoral resilience of a political project that is part of a broader reactionary current, also present in Europe and Latin America, especially after Lula’s victory in Brazil.
Trumpism has been a reference for forces that challenge pluralism, delegitimize their opponents, and present institutional checks and balances as obstacles to popular will. A Republican defeat would send a significant signal about the electoral limits of these strategies, though it would be premature to interpret it as the beginning of their demise. The social and political conditions that fuel these movements do not vanish with a defeat at the polls.The true scope of the third of November cannot be ruled out as an adverse outcome that intensifies political confrontation. Trump has shown his willingness to question the rules of the game when they do not serve his interests.
The possibility of a hostile Congress could translate into greater use of executive powers and an escalation of institutional clashes. That is why the true scope of November 3 cannot be limited to counting how many seats each party wins or loses. What will be decided is whether the second half of Trump’s term will be spent with a Congress subordinate to his project or with an opposition capable of exercising effective control. The election will not end Trumpism, but it could mark the beginning of a new era in which Trump must govern with limits that he has so far barely encountered. And, in doing so, test the resilience of America’s own democracy.
